Advanced Auction Draft Strategy – Part 1: The waiting game

If you’ve drafted auction style for years then this isn’t an “advanced” tip, but I’ve seen high profile fantasy sites encouraging just the opposite. The idea is, wait as long as possible to make your selections without giving another team an advantage. Let me unpack this.

Several factors are at play at the beginning of a draft: everyone has lots of money, everyone is excited, and all the best players are still on the board. In general this leads to players going for (or above) what they would ordinarily be worth. Usually it’s only by a few bucks, so no one feels like they’re getting crushed. Occasionally two guys will have a bidding war and someone will go for 10-15% over “book value.” Your job is to be patient. Keep nominating the best players you don’t want (more on this in a separate post) and wait to pull the trigger. The inevitable outcome is less money available for your opponents and you have more bidding power. This only matters if you are still able to get good players, so don’t wait until the end of the draft and spend $20 on a defense just because you have all this extra money.

If you’ve done your homework, you know who you want and have a few guys from each tier who will be acceptable additions to your team. Make sure to pluck one of them, but if two are left don’t feel the need to go overboard. The waiting game can help you, especially in the middle of a draft, but if the very first nomination of the draft is the guy you want, go ahead and bid on him – even feel free to overspend a little bit – but know that if you miss it won’t hurt you.

Two warnings:

1) savvy owners will take note of your hesitancy to spend and try to inflate the price of players who they think you need. Don’t take the bait. If you need an RB1 and there is one guy left who fits the bill for example, don’t pay $45 dollars if you have him valued at $35. Once it gets a little steep, let the other guy have him at the inflated price and then go grab 3 RB2s with upside, or spend extra to have a baller WR corps.

2) The second part of my thesis above – “without giving others an advantage” – is vital. Don’t wait to bid just for the sake of waiting. If guys are going at discount prices early in the draft (perhaps because everyone is employing the waiting strategy) then don’t hesitate to take advantage of this. Otherwise instead of putting yourself in a strategic position to have more bidding power, you’re simply allowing your opponents to reap value from the early part of the draft – which essentially cuts your legs out from under you from a bidding power perspective.

Ultimately playing the waiting game will give you more flexibility and control as the draft develops, allowing you to assemble the team you want without being subject to runs and scarcity.

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